The Brazil Election Monitor pairs Richard Lapper — one of the world's foremost Brazil analysts — with proprietary benchmarking across frontier AI models. Institutional-grade political intelligence, every week leading up to Brazil's presidential election, plus monthly webinars with Richard.
Every issue runs the same weekly process — aggregation at machine speed, multi-model benchmarking, then Richard's editorial layer on top. No single model drives the output. No analyst is buried in raw data.

Richard Lapper spent decades inside Brazil's political and economic machinery as the Financial Times' Latin America Editor. He has covered every presidential cycle from the return of democracy through Lula's third term — watching coalitions form, court cases unfold, and markets reprice in real time.
AI models are trained on public data. Richard has sources, judgment, and thirty-five years of pattern recognition that no language model can replicate. Our AI layer doesn't replace that — it amplifies it: ingesting and synthesizing hundreds of sources faster than any analyst can, so Richard spends his time on what matters — interpretation, context, and the calls that move positioning.
The Brazil Election Monitor is distributed to a select group of institutional clients managing exposure to Brazilian assets. If you want the independent view — reach out.
Lula is widening his lead as the right remains divided. Flávio's links to the Banco Master scandal and public feud with his stepmother, Michelle, have hurt him with two core right-wing blocs: evangelicals and women. Lula's edge with women now stands above 18 points in the latest BTG/Nexus runoff survey. Flávio's weakness leaves long-expected backers in the Centrão wary of joining a losing candidacy. Upcoming conventions or another scandal may shake things up, but absent that, Brazil looks on course to reelect a leftist octogenarian to a fourth term.