Brazil Election Monitor · Aurora Macro Strategies

Expert judgment.
AI-accelerated.
Weekly.

The Brazil Election Monitor pairs Richard Lapper — one of the world's foremost Brazil analysts — with proprietary benchmarking across frontier AI models. Institutional-grade political intelligence, every week leading up to Brazil's presidential election, plus monthly webinars with Richard.

How It Works

Machine speed.
Human judgment.

Every issue runs the same weekly process — aggregation at machine speed, multi-model benchmarking, then Richard's editorial layer on top. No single model drives the output. No analyst is buried in raw data.

1
News Ingestion
Dozens of Brazilian and international sources pulled and classified across polling, legal, coalition, and macro categories every week.
2
Frontier Model Benchmarking
The same news set is independently fed to Claude Opus 4.8, GPT-5.5, and Gemini 3.5 Flash. Each generates its own probability assessment without seeing the others' outputs. Divergence is signal.
3
Richard's Synthesis
Richard reviews the AI outputs alongside his own reading and sourcing. Where models miss nuance — a Michelle–Flávio rift, a PGR signal, a shift in base mobilization — his expertise fills the gap.
4
Aurora Probability Board
The final probability estimates are Aurora's proprietary house view — informed by, not deferring to, the models or prediction markets. Clients see where we agree and where we diverge.
Richard Lapper portrait
Richard Lapper
Senior Advisor — Brazil · Aurora Macro Strategies
Former FT Latin America Editor35+ Years Covering BrazilAuthor, Lula! & Beef, Bible and BulletsCovered Every Presidential Cycle Since Re-DemocratizationSOURCES ACROSS BRASÍLIA, SÃO PAULO & MORE
The Human Edge

No model has
his Rolodex.

Richard Lapper spent decades inside Brazil's political and economic machinery as the Financial Times' Latin America Editor. He has covered every presidential cycle from the return of democracy through Lula's third term — watching coalitions form, court cases unfold, and markets reprice in real time.

AI models are trained on public data. Richard has sources, judgment, and thirty-five years of pattern recognition that no language model can replicate. Our AI layer doesn't replace that — it amplifies it: ingesting and synthesizing hundreds of sources faster than any analyst can, so Richard spends his time on what matters — interpretation, context, and the calls that move positioning.

What You Receive

Everything needed to price the election.

Probability Board
Aurora's proprietary win-probability estimates, updated weekly. First-round, runoff, and coalition scenarios — with week-on-week deltas so you track momentum, not just snapshots.
Poll Tracker
Every major pollster reconciled in one table with sample size, margin of error, and Richard's read on methodological variance.
Legal & Institutional Risk
STF caseload tracking, electoral court exposure, candidacy eligibility risk. The Dark Horse case, Banco Master, and ineligibility proceedings — mapped for portfolio managers.
U.S. & Trade Risk Watch
Tariff exposure, sanctions risk, and Washington alignment dynamics — with analysis of how US policy is reshaping the electoral calculus for each major candidate.
AI Model Benchmarking
Transparent side-by-side outputs from three frontier models on the same news set. 
Richard's Commentary
The most important element. Richard's unfiltered weekly read: what the AI missed, what the polls aren't capturing, and what three decades of Brazil experience says about where the race is heading.
Sample Content

Inside Issue 1.

Brazil Election Monitor · Issue 1
Week of July 06
Expert Commentary · Probability Board · Prediction Markets · Latest Polls · AI Benchmarking
Latest Issue
Richard's Commentary

Lula is widening his lead as the right remains divided. Flávio's links to the Banco Master scandal and public feud with his stepmother, Michelle, have hurt him with two core right-wing blocs: evangelicals and women. Lula's edge with women now stands above 18 points in the latest BTG/Nexus runoff survey. Flávio's weakness leaves long-expected backers in the Centrão wary of joining a losing candidacy. Upcoming conventions or another scandal may shake things up, but absent that, Brazil looks on course to reelect a leftist octogenarian to a fourth term.

Aurora Probability Board
Lula (PT)56%▲ 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)22%▼ 4%
Renan Santos6%▲ 2%
Other / Third Way16%▼ 4%
Goes to Runoff90%▲ 2%
Key Stories This Week
  • Banco Master film-financing scandal deepens: R$61 million under Federal Police scrutiny, eroding Flávio's evangelical support.
  • Michelle Bolsonaro resigns from PL Mulher amid public feud with stepson Flávio, exposing family and party divisions.
  • Ronaldo Caiado launches PSD ticket with Gilberto Kassab, but lacks state-level palanques in São Paulo, Minas, Rio, and Bahia.
  • U.S. Section 301 investigations and 25% tariff risk loom; Flávio pledges to free Brazil from Mercosul "shackles."
  • PT makes national sovereignty a core campaign theme, framing Bolsonaro family U.S. outreach as "entreguismo."
Prediction Markets · 07 Jul 2026
Lula (PT)62%Kalshi 63% / Polymarket 62%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)22%Kalshi 23% / Polymarket 22%
Renan Santos9%Kalshi 8% / Polymarket 10%
Latest Polls
AtlasIntel (26–30 Jun)Lula 46.3%Flávio 36.6% / Santos 7.8%
Nexus (26–28 Jun)Lula 42%Flávio 34% / Santos 4%
Vox Brasil (23–25 Jun)Lula 38.3%Flávio 32.2% / Santos 2.5%
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The Brazil call you can't afford to miss.

The Brazil Election Monitor is distributed to a select group of institutional clients managing exposure to Brazilian assets. If you want the independent view — reach out.

Distributed to Aurora Clients. Conflict-free, independent analysis.